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Multi-Dimensional Forecasting

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State-of-the-art Revenue Forecasting for airlines

Q4CAST™️ is Quad Optima's Enterprise Forecasting System for airlines. With multi-dimensional demand modeling, we solve the problem of unconstrained demand forecasting and dramatically improve the accuracy of profit-driving decisions.

We've seen that today's airlines typically rely on revenue forecasts from the RM department or on a home-grown forecasting solution that's far from best-in-class. We've also seen that generating each forecast usually requires extensive manual input and tweaks by the RM team. This is error-prone and time-consuming, and it doesn't provide a consistent revenue forecast across the whole airline.

Q4CAST™️ is different. It uses advanced predictive analytics to deliver on-demand, high-accuracy, fully-automated revenue forecasts based on standard data feeds that are already available in your airline. It works in conjunction with your existing PSS and RM systems, so there's no IT implementation overhead. And Q4CAST™️ provides forecasts at aggregate (network) level but also at every level of granularity below that: by route, by class, by point of sale. It's all available in the Cloud, ready to use and on demand. Our forecasts need no IT work, no manual tweaks by the RM analysts, and no Excel macros, and we've built in an intuitive "what-if" capability to allow your commercial and RM teams to quickly identify the fastest, biggest-bang-for-the-buck, ways to maximise revenues. 

Of course accuracy is the main metric for a forecasting system. How would you like 95% revenue forecast accuracy 12 weeks before flight? That’s 10 to 20 points better than legacy systems. And that accuracy is not just at aggregate level, but also for individual routes, points of sale, etc. This accuracy advantage translates into better yield management and higher profits. And Q4CAST™️ gets even better over time: it uses cutting edge AI and ML algorithms to continuously improve its accuracy. 


One of the salient features of Q4CAST™️ is that it forecasts by microsegments - dimensional combinations that are meaningful to the commercial teams. If the RM analyst wants to see a forecast specifically for leisure traffic on route XXX-YYY, Q4CAST™️ can produce a forecast for this specific microsegment. If the FFP analyst wants to see a forecast filtered by a specific FFP tier and Point of Sale, Q4CAST™️ delivers it immediately. Whatever the combination of interest to the user, Q4CAST™️ can provide it.


Q4CAST™️ also allows aggregation along any combination of dimensions. The primary forecast metrics are Revenue, Revenue Margin and Profit. But Q4CAST™️ can also forecast revenue drivers such as Yield, RPKs, RASKs, Load Factors, Average Fare, Passenger Volumes and other Commercial metrics.

In summary:


  1. Q4CAST™️ can forecast at O&D level as easily as at segment level – in fact it’s the only system in the world to do both simultaneously.

  2. Q4CAST™️ can predict price elasticity of individual markets to enable effective pricing action.

  3. Q4CAST™️ forecasts by Routes, Markets, Product, Customer Segment, Distribution Channel and any other dimension you can think of. No other system has such versatility. Most forecast only by Routes or by O&Ds.

  4. Q4CAST™️ forecasts by weeks or months, by quarters,  by year and also over longer timescales (3-5 years) for strategic planning.  No other system delivers this in our experience: until now, airlines have only been able to achieve this with extensive Excel modeling work.

  5. Q4CAST™️ doesn't just forecast, it provides guidance for optimal RM execution. It delivers a unique "Revenue Effectiveness" metric, calculating the potential for revenue improvement and showing you how close to optimal your results are.


Can your system do all this?

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